Alaska Salmon Harvest

Preliminary salmon harvest figures from Alaska Department of Fish and Game show the total 2007 Alaska salmon harvest at 200 million fish, ranking as the 4th-largest catch historically. The season is one of only four on record in which the statewide salmon harvest is over 200 million fish.

Harvest of pink salmon and sockeye both came in substantially above preseason projections, while harvest of chum, coho and Chinook were all significantly below their respective projections.

Some additional volume of coho and chum salmon is expected from September and October fisheries in Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound. Those fisheries typically add 1-2 million salmon to the harvest total.
Finalized harvest figures, average fish size and average prices are not yet available but ADF&G is expected to publish those figures in early November.

 

 

Sockeye
The statewide sockeye harvest totaled just over 47 million fish, substantially higher than the pre-season projection of 40 million and the largest Alaska sockeye catch in 10 years. The Bristol Bay harvest of nearly 30 million was the largest in a decade and sockeye catches in the remainder of Alaska rebounded from 13 million in 2006 to 17 million in 2007.

The 2007 season ranks as eighth-largest among Alaska sockeye catches of the last century. While impressive, the more significant piece with respect to market supply is the consistently strong sockeye catches of the last four years. Statewide harvest has exceeded 40 million sockeye only 14 times since record-keeping began in the 1880s, but sockeye harvest has exceeded 40 million in each of the last four years, averaging 44 million since 2004.
This approaches the historical peak sockeye production of the 1989-1996 period, when average harvest was 53 million sockeye. For perspective, the 50-year average harvest is 28 million sockeye and the 100-year average is 25 million.

The Bristol Bay sockeye harvest totaled 29.7 million in 2007 but the return to the Bay was significantly stronger than harvest indicates. The 2007 projection called for a total return of 34 million fish to Bristol Bay but according to ADF&G the actual return was over 44 million sockeye.

Bristol Bay harvest figures are similar for 2006 and 2007 (28.4 million and 29.7 million respectively) but the 2006 season was unique for its two distinct peaks, which spread the bulk of harvest over the course of four weeks. The 2007 season had more typical run timing, with most fish arriving in the traditional two-week window during late June and early July. Despite higher daily processing capacity in 2007, the fleet quickly exceeded processors’ capacity as the run peaked. Processors responded with delivery limits and occasional buying stoppages during a full week at the peak of the season.

The Bristol Bay sockeye return exceeded preseason projection by 10 million fish, but most of those additional fish ended up in their home rivers as surplus escapement rather than additional harvest. Actual harvest surpassed projection by only three million fish while escapement exceeded the top end of the sustainable escapement goal range in seven of the nine major river systems.

Elsewhere in the state, most of the major sockeye fisheries produced at or near their projected levels. The standouts were the Alaska Peninsula sockeye fisheries, which produced a harvest of 5.8 million on a projection of 4 million and Chignik, which produced only 800,000 sockeye on a projection of 1.3 million.

 

The sockeye harvest in BC Canada was unusually low, totaling only 640,000 fish. Fishery managers had anticipated a modest 2007 return for several key stocks, including the Fraser River. BC Canada sockeye fisheries produced 4.2 million fish in 2006, nearly double the previous 5-year average of 2 million.

 

Pink
The 2007 pink harvest of 134 million fish beat the preseason projection by 25 percent and ranks as the third-largest Alaska pink harvest on record.

Among the major production areas, Prince William Sound was the top performer with a preliminary harvest of 54 million pinks, well above the projection of 40 million. Southeast Alaska produced 44 million pinks (slightly below projection) and Kodiak produced 24 million, double the preseason projection.

Based on comparison of recent seasons in two-year pairs, there appears to be some shift in the distribution of pink salmon harvest among the major production areas. Southeast Alaska typically provides half or nearly half of statewide pink salmon production in recent years, averaging 45 percent from 1998 to 2003. However, the region’s share of statewide pink salmon harvest declined to 40 percent for the 2004-2005 period and to 27 percent for the 2006-2007 period. In the last three years, Prince William Sound and Kodiak have alternately displaced Southeast as the top pink-producing region in the state.

 

 

Chum
By standards of the last decade, the 2007 chum harvest of 15.5 million is fairly normal but considering the projection for a record chum harvest in 2007, the season was a disappointment. As of mid-September, the statewide harvest stands at 15.5 million chums, 37 percent below the projection of 24.7 million.

September and October chum fisheries may add up to a million fish to the statewide total but even then, the final tally will end up one-third below projection and slightly below the 5-year average harvest of 16.8 million.
Southeast Alaska was projected at 15.7 million but actual harvest was only 8.7 million. Significant chum fisheries in the remainder of the state were uniformly below projection, though not to the same degree as Southeast Alaska. The exception was Bristol Bay, with a harvest of 1.3 million chums on a 1 million projection, although the chum harvest there is incidental to the sockeye fishery.

 

Coho
As of September 17 the statewide coho harvest totals 2.9 million fish, nearly 40 percent below pre-season projection of 4.7 million. Like the chum fishery, some additional volume of coho is expected from September and October fisheries, but the total coho harvest is unlikely to exceed 3.5 million for the 2007 season.

Coho projection methodology relies primarily on previous 5-year harvest averages so detailed discussion of harvest relative to projection is not particularly useful. Still, the 2007 season will be one of only two seasons in the last twenty years when the statewide coho harvest has fallen below 4 million fish.

This may become an issue with respect to market position of Alaska coho. The coho harvest has been significantly below projection (11 percent or more) in 3 of the last 5 years, including 2006 and 2007. The market has responded with strong prices, competing for the available fish. But with the more conspicuous shortfall of coho this season there is potential that buyers may seek a replacement product rather than continue price-competing for an apparently declining supply.

King Salmon
Like the chum harvest, the 2007 Chinook catch is fairly consistent with the 10-year average harvest, but disappointing in light of the pre-season projection and the strong harvests of recent years. The preliminary 2007 Chinook harvest is 499,000 fish, well below the projection of 789,000.

Some shortfall was expected, as the Chinook projection for Southeast Alaska (434,000) was significantly higher than the actual commercial harvest quota of 268,000 fish dictated by terms of the Pacific Salmon Treaty. The Southeast region harvest total is 303,000 including hatchery-produced Chinook that are not deducted from the treaty quota.

The remaining shortfall from statewide projection was in Bristol Bay (57,000 harvest on a 145,000 projection) and in the AYK region, with a catch of 57,000 Chinooks on a projection of 111,000.

The total West coast wild Chinook supply declined again in 2007, with preliminary harvest at just 822,000 fish for the three major fisheries along the coast. Alaska produced 499,000 Chinooks, BC Canada harvest was 151,000 and harvest from the West coast states (WA, CA and OR) totaled 172,000.

Market supply of wild Chinook peaked during 2002 – 2004, with an average coast-wide harvest of nearly 2 million Chinook from fisheries in the West coast states, BC Canada and Alaska. Supply dropped to slightly over 1 million fish in 2006, when West coast fishery managers reduced harvest to protect the Klamath River stock in Oregon.
The considerable drop in market supply drove Alaska Chinook prices to a 25-year high in 2006. Alaska Chinook prices were at similar levels for the 2007 summer season, and the opening price of over $7 per pound for the Winter troll fishery is believed to be the highest ever.