Alaska Department of Revenue released the May-August 2006 Alaska Salmon Price Report (ASPR) October 17. The ASPR covers wholesale volume and first wholesale value, by species and area, for six key Alaska salmon products. “First wholesale” is defined as the first sale by a processor to a buyer outside their affiliate network. The report as published by Department of Revenue is specific to area but is summarized into statewide totals here.
Total May-August ASPR sales value is up slightly, from $338 million in 2005 to $344 million in 2006. Total value in the largest category (frozen H&G) is down 11 percent from $154 million to $136 million, due mostly to a decrease in frozen sockeye sales volume for the period. Value of canned salmon sales is up substantially for the period, from $55 million to $69 million and fresh H&G sales value increased from $61 million to $66 million. The largest percentage value increase for the May-August period was in fillet sales, up 41 percent from $18 million to $26 million. Total salmon roe sales value is down from $50 million to $46 million, the result of lower sales volume. Average price for roe was up significantly for four of the five species.
H&G Frozen Sockeye
SMIS estimates frozen H&G sockeye production based on harvest, estimated size and estimated canned, fresh H&G and fillet production. Frozen H&G sockeye production in 2006 is estimated at 80-85 million pounds. Through August 2006, only 37 million pounds (45 percent) of frozen H&G sockeye had been sold outside of processors’ affiliate networks.
The relatively slow pace of sales may be a function of the shift in the frozen sockeye market, away from Japan. Typically a good deal of the year’s frozen sockeye export and sales activity has already occurred (in Japan) by the end of August, but 2006 marks a distinct break from that pattern. 
Through August 2006, frozen sockeye exports to Japan total 12,300 metric tons (27 million pounds) just 33 percent of Alaska’s estimated frozen H&G sockeye production for 2006. This contrasts sharply with 2004 and 2005, when production levels were similar, but Japan had imported 66-69 percent of Alaska frozen H&G sockeye production by the end of August.
Four months remain in the calendar year, but Japan typically receives very little Alaska sockeye after August. Since 1996, Japan has never received more than 14 percent of its total annual U.S. frozen sockeye imports during the September-December period.
Average first wholesale price of frozen H&G sockeye for the May-August period is down in 2006. Average price for Bristol Bay product dropped from $2.03 to $1.72 per pound and the average price for “local” (non-Bristol-Bay) product decreased from $2.32 to $2.27 per pound.
Other H&G Frozen Salmon
Frozen H&G coho prices for the May-August period dropped slightly from $1.92 to $1.83 per pound but through August only 1.8 million pounds of product had been sold at those levels. Industry sources and ex-vessel price from the 2006 season both indicate a much stronger market for coho than the May-August wholesale price data suggests. In fact, ex-vessel prices for dressed, troll-caught coho reached record levels in September, topping out at $2.85 per pound. Anticipated production of H&G frozen coho is 10-12 million pounds. At the end of August about 80 percent of the frozen H&G coho pack remained unsold.
Sales volume of frozen chum more than doubled for the May-August period, from 16 million pounds in 2005 to 36 million pounds in 2006. Average price for frozen chums also showed a substantial gain, from 72 cents per pound to 95 cents per pound. Considering the harvest shortfall for pinks, frozen chum may be, to some extent, serving as a replacement product for frozen pinks. During July and August 2006, China and the European Union countries received 84 percent of U.S. frozen chum exports. In 2005, China and the EU were the two largest recipients of U.S. frozen pink exports, totaling 70 percent.
Sales volume of frozen H&G pink salmon dropped from 40 million pounds to 32 million, but average wholesale price for the May-August period increased from 62 cents to 78 cents per pound.
H&G Fresh
The per-pound value of H&G fresh salmon increased substantially for all five species of Alaska salmon. In fact, average price for all five species was at its highest point in the six-year history of the ASPR data set.
May-August sales volume of H&G fresh was down from 27 million to 26 million pounds, but total value of the category increased from $61 million to $66 million.
Chinook was the price leader in the fresh H&G category, up from $4.36 to $5.56 per pound. The largest percentage increase in the fresh H&G category was for chum salmon, up from 74 cents to $1.00 per pound, a gain of 35 percent.
Fresh and Frozen Fillet
Average first wholesale prices for both fresh and frozen fillets were up across the board for the May-August period. Price increases were most significant in fresh fillets, with gains ranging between 27 and 36 percent compared to the same period in 2005.
Total value of the fresh and frozen fillet category during the May-August period rose by 41 percent, from $18 million to $26 million.
Roe
Total sales volume of salmon roe for the May-August period was down 24 percent, from 13.9 million pounds in 2005 to 10.6 million pounds in 2006. However, the volume decline was nearly offset by significant price increases for two of the three major species categories. Average price for chum roe increased from $5.04 per pound to $6.11 per pound, while pink roe increased from $3.25 to $4.04 per pound. Average price for sockeye roe dropped from $3.55 to $2.79 per pound.
Canned Salmon Sales and Price
For ease of discussion, all can sizes are converted to a single measure: 48-tall case equivalent. This captures production and sales volume of all four standard can sizes for canned pink and canned sockeye.
Please note that discussion of canned salmon sales and price follows the “sales season” which begins in September of the harvest year and ends in August of the following year. This is consistent with the production season for canned salmon and with reporting periods for the Alaska Salmon Price Report. The 2006 sales season began September 1, 2006 and will end August 31, 2007.
The May-August 2006 ASPR completes the canned salmon data set for the 2005 sales season.
Canned Salmon, Sockeye
Canned sockeye sales volume remained steady, totaling 1,149,000 48-tall case equivalent for the 2005 sales season. This is in line with 2004 and 2005 sales season volumes of 1.07 and 1.29 million cases, respectively.
Average first wholesale case price per 48-half case was in the $61-$62 range for the 2005 sales season, up from $56-$59 in the previous two sales seasons. Average case price per 48-tall was in the $91-$93 range, up from the $87-$90 range of 2004 but down from the $96-$101 range of the 2003 sales season.
Over half of canned sockeye sales (57 percent) was in half-pound (7.5-ounce) cans and 39 percent was in tall (14.75-ounce) cans.
Canned Salmon, Pink
Canned pink sales volume was 3,264,200 48-tall case equivalent, for the 2005 sales season, up 8 percent from the 2000-2004 average of 3 million cases.
Average case price for 48-tall canned pink continued to climb in the 2005 sales season, to the $41-$42 range. The May-August average of $42.58 was a five-year high point. Canned pink prices bottomed out at $34 per 48-tall case, late in 2003.
SMIS anticipates continued increases for canned pink salmon prices. Estimated 2006 inventory of canned pinks is significantly below the five-year average sales volume, due to an unusually small harvest and the ongoing product-form shift toward frozen production. The 2006 pack estimate is 1.8 million 48-tall case equivalent, well below typical production of over 3 million cases. The chronic oversupply of canned pink salmon appears to have ended.
