The 2006-2007 Alaskan king crab season opens to shifting market conditions, major changes in world supply and adjustments by fishery managers that affect Alaska harvest volume and value.
The Bering Sea crab fishery opened on October 15. Alaska Department of Fish and Game established the 2006-2007 Total Allowable Catch (TAC) at 15.5 million pounds for King crab, a 15 percent decrease from the 2005-2006 season. During the 2005-2006 crab season biologists noted harvesters “high grading” king crab (releasing legal, but small size crab) to achieve better size and price. There is mortality associated with catching and releasing crab, and ADF&G sited this as the basis for adjusting their TAC formula, decreasing allowable catch for the 2006-2007 Alaska season.
In response, many harvesters have pledged to retain 100 percent of legal size crab they catch. In the long run this may be grounds to re-adjust the TAC formula (yielding a higher quota) but in the short term it could mean that processors will be buying more small king crab from the Alaska fishery in the 2006-2007 season.
As of October 17, the season was off to an apparently slow start due to weather and ongoing price negotiations between harvesters and processors. According to industry trade press reports, two processors had posted ex-vessel prices that were approximately $1 per pound below last year. According to the ADF&G website the estimated 2005 ex-vessel price for Bristol Bay red king crab was $4.52.
Bering Sea Opilio Crab
The 2006-2007 Bering Sea Opilio TAC was set at 36.5 million pounds, a 2 percent decline from last year. Under the quota-based management system fishermen may harvest Opilio crab at any time during the open season (October 2006 – May 2007). During the 2005-2006 season most Alaska Opilio was harvested after January 2006. This is driven by biological issues (meat fill) and by the desired timing of market entry for the product. While the 2006-2007 Opilio season is officially open at this point, no significant harvest or purchasing activity is expected before January 2007.
World Market Supply
The world market for King crab has changed recently with major supply increases due to strong Russian harvests from the Barents Sea.
Despite a growth trend for the Alaska king crab TAC (with the exception of 2006), Alaska’s share of world king crab production is declining. While detailed, reliable data on the total world supply of king crab is not readily available, data on Bering Sea and Barents Sea king crab harvest provides enough information to sketch out the big picture. In 2005 the Alaska king crab harvest was 18.3 million pounds, and the Barents Sea quota was nearly double, 33 million pounds. It is widely reported that actual harvest from the Barents Sea fishery is substantially higher than the quota. U.S. import figures lend credibility to such reports.
Japan and the U.S. are the two primary markets for Alaska king crab. Alaska producers typically export about 80 percent of production, and the lion’s share of exports go to Japan. The domestic market is a much smaller, but still-significant market destination for Alaska producers. According to foreign trade data for both Japan and the U.S. the supply of king crab entering those markets has increased substantially.
Between 2000 and 2004 U.S. king crab imports averaged 22.5 million pounds. In 2005 the import volume jumped to 41 million pounds, of which Russia supplied 91 percent. NMFS import data through August 2006 shows more growth, with U.S. king crab imports already at 47 million pounds (four times Alaska’s 2005 finished product weight). As in 2005, 90 percent of YTD 2006 U.S. king crab imports originate in Russia.
Japan shows less dramatic, but still significant growth in supply. According to NMFS data Japan imported 78 million pounds of king crab in 2005, up 10 million pounds from 2004. U.S. exports of king crab to Japan totaled 5.5 million pounds in 2005.
With Alaska now supplying only a small percentage of the rapidly increasing volume in its primary markets, fluctuations in the Alaska TAC may have little impact on the market supply and resulting price of king crab in Alaska.
