Pack estimates in this issue of the bulletin are preliminary, as statewide harvest figures are not yet finalized and specific fish size is not yet available. These pack estimates (and resulting inventory figures) will be corrected in later bulletins as more specific data becomes available.
Carryover figures entering the 2006 sales season are considered final, as they are calculated using finalized ASPR data for previous years’ production and wholesale volume.
Inventory estimates follow the “sales season” which begins in September of the harvest year and ends in August of the following year. This is consistent with the production season for canned salmon and with reporting periods for the Alaska Salmon Price Report. The 2006 sales season began September 1, 2006 and will end August 31, 2007.
For ease of discussion, all can sizes are converted to a single measure: 48-tall case equivalent. This captures production and sales volume of all four standard can sizes for canned pink and canned sockeye.
Canned Sockeye
Canned sockeye production from the 2006 season is estimated at 1.27 million 48-tall case equivalent. September 1 inventory is estimated at 1.43 million 48-tall case equivalent.
While the September 2006 inventory of 1.43 million cases is only slightly above the September 2004 and 2005 inventories of 1.3 million, it represents a 6-year high point and is substantially higher than the 3-year average sales volume of 1.17 million 48-tall equivalent. Average sales are nearly 20 percent below the estimated September 2006 inventory.
The September 2006 carryover inventory of 165,000 48-tall equivalent is a 5-year high and is the second year of increasing carryover. Alaska production was relatively strong and processors in BC Canada produced an above-average canned sockeye pack. Barring a substantial increase in sales volume or a major correction to our estimate of canned sockeye production, it appears that the canned sockeye market is entering a period of oversupply.
Pink
Canned pink salmon production for the 2006 season is estimated at 1.8 million 48-tall equivalent and September 1 inventory is estimated at 2.6 million 48-tall equivalent. These figures represent, by far, the lowest point in several years for both production and inventory of canned pinks.
Carryover entering the 2006 sales season increased to 839,000 48-tall case equivalent, up from the last two years due to strong production from the record pink harvest of 2005. This is offset (and then some) by the 2006 production estimate of just 1.8 million 48-tall case equivalent.
The combination of an unexpectedly modest 70-million-fish pink harvest (smallest in 15 years) and the product-form shift from canned toward frozen product spell the end of the long-running oversupply of canned pinks. The estimated September 2006 inventory of 2.6 million 48-tall case equivalent is 600,000 cases (23 percent) below the five-year average sales volume of 3.2 million cases.
It is important to note that the strong canned pink sales volume in recent years has been fueled to some extent by oversupply and resulting bargain prices. Higher prices may curb some of that demand. Still, the 23-percent gap between 2006 inventory and five-year average sales volume clearly indicates that the balance of supply and demand has tipped in favor of sellers and that wholesale prices will be rising in the near future.
BC Canada Canned Pack
The BC Canada sockeye pack was slightly above average in 2006, totaling 168,600 48-tall case equivalent. The five-year average is 151,800 48-tall equivalent.
The canned pink pack from BC Canada was substantially smaller than usual at just 39,000 48-tall case equivalent, about 10 percent of typical production. The five-year average canned pink salmon pack in BC is 347,000 48-tall equivalent.
