There are three major sources for North American sablefish: Alaska, Canada and the West-coast U.S. states (Washington, Oregon and California). Estimated allowable catch of North American sablefish is 72 million pounds in 2006. Alaska accounts for 48 million pounds (67 percent), while the West-coast U.S. states account for 15 million pounds (20 percent) and BC Canada accounts for 13 percent, with 9 million pounds.
There are two factors that will potentially affect sablefish prices in 2006. One is a moderate decrease in supply from Alaska and the other is the apparent growth in demand for sablefish from markets other than Japan.
The allowable catch for Alaska sablefish declines slightly in 2006, down from 49 million to 48 million pounds. The TAC for Gulf of Alaska (GOA) sablefish is reduced by 2.4 million pounds, but is offset by an increase of 1.6 million pounds in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (BSAI) sablefish TAC. However, the specifics of the TAC reduction, by area, suggest impact to supply will be about double what is indicated by statewide totals. Nearly all the GOA sablefish TAC is harvested (average 98 percent of IFQ TAC since 2001) but only about half the IFQ sablefish TAC for BSAI is harvested (average 53 percent since 2001). If typical Alaska harvest patterns persist, the net result will be a harvest reduction closer to two million pounds.
The anticipated reduction in Alaska sablefish harvest is relatively small (down only about 4 percent). But that reduction, combined with growing demand for sablefish in alternative markets, may create upward pressure for sablefish prices in Japan.
Japan remains the primary market destination for sablefish. It is a mature market that is sensitive to relatively minor changes in supply, indicated by prices in 2004 and 2005, which responded inversely to fluctuations in the Alaska TAC. The Alaska sablefish TAC rose 8 percent in 2004 (price decrease) and fell 7 percent in 2005 (price increase).
The share of U.S. sablefish exports received by Japan has declined significantly, from 90 percent in 2002 to 73 percent in 2005. (NMFS data through November 2005). Japan’s sablefish import share appears to have been eroded in 2005 by China and Hong Kong, which received 4.2 million pounds (15 percent) of U.S. sablefish exports. It is not clear how much of that volume was imported for consumption and how much was imported for processing.
The Alaska sablefish TAC reduction and the declining share of U.S. sablefish exports to Japan are relatively weak as stand-alone indicators of a pending price increase in Japan. But taken in combination, they can reasonably be interpreted as at least providing upward pressure for 2006 sablefish prices in Japan.
