Alaska Department of Fish and Game released its 2007 run forecasts and salmon harvest projections in early February. As always, the projection is a subject of keen interest for industry watchers. While accuracy varies from year to year, the projection is typically within 10-20 percent of the actual harvest and provides an important “ballpark” figure for market supply of Alaska wild salmon.

 

Chinook

The 2007 projection calls for a statewide Chinook harvest of 789,000 fish, well above the 10-year average. However, actual Chinook harvest in 2007 is likely to come in at or below the 10-year average of 663,000. Projection methodology for Chinook relies heavily on the recent three-year average harvest (Southeast Alaska) and on the recent 5-year average harvest (Central and Westward regions).

Chinook harvest in Southeast Alaska is projected at 434,000 but actual harvest will be substantially lower. Harvest in the region is limited by terms of the Pacific Salmon Treaty with Canada. For 2007, allocation of treaty Chinook to SE fleets will be significantly below ADF&G harvest projection for the region. While hatchery-produced Chinook will bridge some of the gap, the region total will be well under 350,000 fish. In 2006, Chinook harvest projection for Southeast was 446,000 and actual harvest was 355,000.

Elsewhere in the state, strong market demand and price will likely boost fishing effort for Chinook. Ex-vessel prices in 2006 were at a 25-year high point (average $2.77 per pound statewide) and the Chinook market outlook for 2007 remains strong at this point. Harvest projection for Bristol Bay Chinook is 145,000 and projection for the Arctic/Yukon/Kuskokwim (AYK) region is 111,000 Chinooks, including 45,000 Yukon River kings (mid-point of the projected harvest range).

 Sockeye

The 2007 Alaska sockeye harvest projection is nearly 41 million fish. If the projection is accurate, 2007 will be the fourth consecutive year of sockeye harvest above 40 million fish.  For perspective, the Alaska harvest has exceeded 40 million sockeye in only 13 of the last 107 years. Sockeye projections in the last 6 years have been fairly accurate, ranging between -11 and +17 percent compared to actual harvest.

Bristol Bay is expected to be a strong performer again, with a projection of 26 million sockeye. This represents 64 percent of the statewide sockeye projection total, down slightly from 70 percent in 2006. The age-class composition of the 2007 Bristol Bay forecast suggests a significant improvement in average fish size (and resulting fillet yields) compared to 2005 and 2006.

Sockeye fisheries elsewhere in the state are expected to produce 14.5 million fish, an improvement from the “local” (non-Bristol-Bay) harvest of 13 million in 2006. Cook Inlet is projected at 3.6 million sockeye and Alaska Peninsula harvest is projected at 4 million.

Prince William Sound is expected to produce 3 million sockeye in 2007, a 10-year high for the region. Common property harvest of PWS hatchery sockeye is projected at 1.7 million fish, and natural-production sockeye (Copper River) is projected at 1.3 million.

While harvest origin of Alaska sockeye plays a role in value to processors and harvesters, there are big-picture market implications for another 40-million-strong Alaska sockeye catch in 2007, among them:

• The canned sockeye market appears to be oversupplied after the 2006 season and another large canned pack from the 2007 season could create a multi-year surplus situation.
  
  
• There is consumption growth and generally strong demand for wild salmon in the domestic and European Union markets. But those markets may not be prepared to absorb the lion’s share of Alaska frozen sockeye, which has traditionally been destined for Japan. Production of frozen sockeye has been relatively steady in the last three years, but 2006 exports to Japan dropped by over 20,000 metric tons which represents over half of estimated H&G frozen sockeye production from the season.
  
  
• Conversely, the decline in exports of Alaska sockeye to Japan represents a major increase in the capacity of Alaska producers to supply Alaska sockeye in support of market development efforts in the U.S. and EU.

The combined effect of strong sockeye production and the dramatic decrease in 2006 sockeye exports to Japan have created challenges for Alaska sockeye producers, reflected in ex-vessel prices from the 2006 season. As of November 2006 (most recent ADF&G data) sockeye is the only Alaska salmon species to show a decline in ex-vessel price for the 2006 season. Statewide average price was down from 73 cents per pound in 2005 to 67 cents per pound in 2006.

It remains to be seen whether the domestic and EU markets can absorb the majority of Alaska sockeye production at a price favorable for producers. With a 41-million-fish projection for 2007, every nickel in ex-vessel price represents $12 million in statewide ex-vessel value.

Coho

The harvest projection for coho relies primarily on recent five-year average harvests. Accordingly, the harvest projection of 4.7 million coho for the 2007 season reveals little about the potential of the statewide coho return to generate harvest volume significantly above or below the harvest projection.

Biological strength of the coho run was apparently below normal in 2006, producing a total harvest of 4.2 million coho (14 percent below projection) despite strong market conditions that pushed ex-vessel price to a 15-year high point.

However, if biological strength improves and strong market conditions persist there could be a significant increase in Alaska coho production. In several areas of the state there is little or no fishing effort on late-run coho stocks, due largely to a recent history of low prices. But with coho prices rebounding in 2006, there is some potential for renewed interest in targeting those stocks. While the recent 10-year average harvest is 4.5 million coho, the Alaska harvest has been as high as 9.5 million, in 1994.

Pink Salmon

The 2007 harvest projection for pink salmon is 108 million. However, recent history and the strength of the parent year return (2005) suggest that actual 2007 harvest could be significantly higher, on the order of 130 million or more.

Variation of the pink harvest follows a predictable pattern based on the two-year life cycle of the fish and is reflected in projection accuracy for even-numbered and odd-numbered years. Actual harvest of pink salmon in the last 10 even-numbered years is generally at or below pre-season projection, averaging 4 percent below projection. In contrast, actual harvest of pinks in the last 10 odd-numbered years typically exceeds projection, by an average of 23 percent.

The parent year for the 2007 pink run is 2005, which produced the record Alaska pink harvest of 161 million, exceeding that pre-season projection of 114 million by 41 percent.

Market demand may play a role in determining the actual harvest of pink salmon in 2007. In several recent years, processors limited purchases of pink salmon in strong run years, due in part to depressed wholesale price for pink products. In several years, actual harvest of pinks did not reflect the full biological strength of the return. This apparently ended in 2005, when Alaska processors purchased 161 million pink salmon (over half a billion pounds) from the fleet. Considering the heightened demand and price for pinks, it appears that market demand will not be a limiting factor in utilizing the full harvestable surplus from the 2007 return.

Chum

If accurate, the harvest projection of 24.7 million chum salmon will be a new record. The current record is 24.2 million, set in 2000.  Projections for Southeast Alaska call for a harvest of 15.7 million chums, two-thirds of the statewide total. Prince William Sound harvest is projected at 3.7 million chum, most from hatchery production.

Over 80 percent of the chum salmon returning to Southeast Alaska are produced in hatcheries. According to hatchery operators, ocean conditions at out-migration of hatchery chum fry were favorable for chums that will be returning in 2007.  Similar conditions were in place for chums that returned to the region in 2006, when the SE harvest of 14 million exceeded pre-season projection by 34 percent.