Canned Salmon Production and Inventory Estimates

Pack estimates in this issue of the bulletin are preliminary. Pack estimates (and resulting inventory figures) are replaced with production figures published in the Annual Alaska Salmon Production Report, released by Alaska Department of Revenue in January.

 

Carryover figures entering the 2009 sales season are considered final, as they are calculated using finalized ASPR data for previous years��� production and wholesale volume.

 

Inventory estimates follow the ���sales season,��� which begins in September of the harvest year and ends in August of the following year. This is consistent with the production season for canned salmon and with reporting periods for the Alaska Salmon Price Report. The 2009 sales season began September 1, 2009 and will end August 31, 2010.

 

For ease of discussion, all can sizes are converted to a single measure: 48-tall case equivalent. The 48-tall case equivalent captures production and sales volume of all four standard can sizes for canned pink and canned sockeye.

 

Canned Sockeye

Canned sockeye production from the 2009 season is estimated at 1.05 million 48-tall case equivalent. September 1 inventory is estimated at 1.23 million 48-tall case equivalent. September canned sockeye inventories have been stable for the last five years, ranging between 1.1 and 1.4 million cases. September 2009 inventory is no exception, at 1.2 million cases.

 

While the product-form share of canned sockeye is generally declining in recent years (down from 38 percent of the sockeye pack in 2004 to 28 percent in 2008) estimated production of 1.05 million cases from the 2009 season is a substantial increase over 2008 production of 873,000 cases. To some extent this is a simple function of harvest increase; the statewide sockeye catch was up 10 percent from 39 million in 2008 to 43 million in 2009. Additional factors driving growth of the [estimated] canned pack are specific to Bristol Bay. The Bay accounted for 71 percent of Alaska sockeye harvest in 2009. The harvest was significantly above forecast (over 30 million on a 24 million projection) and run entry was more compressed than usual, contributing to heavier use of ���run tenders��� shipping raw fish out of the region for processing [canning] elsewhere in the state.

 

The 2010 harvest projection for Bristol Bay is 30.5 million sockeye (source: ADF&G). Barring a major deviation from forecast or typical run-entry timing, it appears the raw material stream of Bristol Bay sockeye will be similar to 2009.

 

Canned sockeye production from BC Canada remains a minor contributor to the North American supply for 2009, totaling just 19,000 cases.

 

 

Canned Pink

Canned pink salmon production for the 2009 season is estimated at 2 million 48-tall case equivalent and September 1 inventory is estimated at 2.8 million 48-tall equivalent.

 

Canned pink production normally fluctuates in accordance with the two-year abundance cycle of the fish. Even-numbered years are typically weak and odd-numbered years strong. This abundance pattern is reflected in recent years��� production, ranging from a high of 3.5 million cases in 2005 to just 1.7 million cases in 2008.

 

The 2009 season was projected at 113 million pinks salmon and was expected to significantly exceed that projection. But the 2009 pink harvest came in at 96 million fish and the resulting [estimated] production of only 2 million cases is more typical of the low years in the abundance cycle.

 

Despite a slightly-above-average carryover inventory of 829,000 cases entering the 2009 sales season, September 2009 inventory is only 2.8 million cases, well below the five-year average of 3.3 million cases.

 

The current inventory is barely adequate to supply the five-year average sales season volume (2.55 million cases) but this does not translate directly to sustained high prices. The last four sales seasons show a wide fluctuation in sales volume, ranging from 3.2 million cases in the 2005 sales season to 1.8 million in the 2008 sales season.

 

While the firming prices and relatively strong sales volume of the 2007 sales season indicate market strength, the highly variable sales volume of the last four years is evidence that canned pinks remain subject to price elasticity of demand. This is significant in light of the unusually low sales volume (381,000 cases) in May-August 2009, when average 48-tall case price reached $76.

 

In short, the demand for canned pink salmon is strong but not immune to price sensitivity. Canned pink prices are likely to remain strong in the 2009 sales season, but sales will likely be dampened by the strong prices.

 

Canned pink salmon is primarily a domestic-market product. Any potential market effects from the strong Russian pink harvest have yet to be seen. Through September, 2009 U.S. canned pink imports remain modest (about 140,000 cases) and are sourced primarily from Thailand.

 

BC Canada production of canned pinks was slightly over 300,000 cases in 2009. While this is up from 2008, it is still a relatively minor contribution to the total North American pack.