Alaska Salmon Price Report, May-August 2008
Alaska Department of Revenue released the May-August 2008 Alaska Salmon Price Report (ASPR) November 17, approximately one month later than normal publication, due to seafood processor reporting delays.
The Alaska Salmon Price Report (ASPR) covers wholesale volume and first wholesale value, by species and area, for 
six key Alaska salmon products. It is the primary data source for most of the salmon market analysis published by the Seafood Market Information Service. The report as published by Department of Revenue is specific to area but is summarized into statewide totals here.
The May-August period is particularly significant, as it captures over 90 percent of the year���s fresh salmon sales activity (both fillets and H&G) and slightly over half of frozen H&G and roe sales activity for the year.
Total May-August ASPR sales value continues to rise, up 7 percent from $380 million in 2007 to $405 million in 2008.
Canned salmon showed the greatest value difference from the previous year, up 53 percent from $58 million in May-August 2007 to $88 million in 2008. This value growth was largely a function of May-August sales volume returning to normal. Average wholesale prices increased slightly but sales volume rebounded from the 10-year low of 27 million pounds in 2007 to 43 million pounds in 2008 (just below the 10-year average for the May-August period).
Sales volume of fresh and frozen products was 123 million pounds in May-August 2008, down 29 percent from 173 million pounds in 2007. However, this was offset by higher prices for most products, and by a lower proportion of pink salmon in the species composition of sales. Total value of fresh and frozen products during May-August was $317 million in 2008, down 2 percent from $322 million in 2007.
H&G Frozen Salmon
Sockeye
Average wholesale price for H&G frozen sockeye rose 10 percent, from $2.01 to $2.22 per pound. Sockeye sales volume for the May-August period increased by a similar margin, up 7 percent from 32 million to 34 million pounds. The price and volume increases for the period are significant in light of the 18 percent decrease in 2008 Alaska sockeye harvest.
There is a summary of frozen sockeye exports, pace of sales and estimated production elsewhere in this bulletin.
Pink
The average first wholesale price of frozen H&G pink salmon increased substantially, up from 75 cents per pound in May-August 2007 to 96 cents in 2008. However, sales volume of frozen H&G pink salmon declined by more than half, from 50 million pounds during May-August 2007 to 21 million pounds in 2008.
Some reduction in frozen pink sales volume was anticipated, as pink harvest dropped 40 percent from 144 million fish in 2007 to 84 million in 2008. But the extent of sales volume decline (nearly 60 percent) substantially exceeds the harvest volume decrease.
The low sales volume of frozen pinks may be an early indicator of reduced reprocessing activity overseas. Both China and Thailand are widely acknowledged as reprocessing centers for the seafood industry. In 2007, China and Thailand received a combined 40,480 MT (75 percent) of July-October frozen pink exports from the U.S. During the same period in 2008, China and Thailand received only 19,710 MT of U.S. frozen pink exports.
It is unclear how to ascribe the decreased ASPR sales volume and decreased exports of frozen pink salmon. There are several potential factors, including the global economic situation, a variety of concerns associated with overseas reprocessing, and the substantial increase in pink salmon wholesale price.
Chum
The average first wholesale price for frozen H&G chum increased to $1.10 per pound for May-August 2008, up from 89 cents during the same period in 2007. This is the strongest wholesale chum price in recent years, nearly triple the low point of 41 cents per pound during May-August 2002.
Frozen H&G chum sales volume for the period decreased from 29 million to 23 million pounds (down 20 percent) despite a slight increase in the chum harvest between 2007 and 2008.
Coho
Average May-August wholesale price for frozen H&G coho increased again, from $2.39 in 2007 to $2.72 in 2008. Sales volume for the period was up slightly, from 2.7 million to 3.1 million pounds. May-August is usually a modest sales volume period for frozen H&G coho, typically accounting for 25 percent or less of annual sales.
2008 was somewhat unusual for the large average size of coho: nearly 8 pounds per fish. This may have contributed to a slightly higher price, as the coho market is size-sensitive.
H&G Fresh
After remarkable growth in 2007, the May-August sales volume of fresh H&G salmon dropped 40 percent in 2008, to a 5-year low. Total sales of fresh H&G salmon dropped from 34 million pounds in May-August 2007 to 21 million pounds for the same period in 2008.
Although sales volume was down substantially, all five salmon species showed significant increases in average wholesale price for May-August 2008. For four of the five salmon species, the increases pushed H&G fresh prices to their highest point in the 8-year ASPR data set. Despite the 40-percent decline in sales volume, total wholesale value for the fresh H&G category dropped only 18 percent, from $81 million in May-August 2007 to $67 million in 2008.
Fresh and Frozen Fillet
Frozen fillet sales were strong in May-August 2008, totaling 9.6 million pounds, up 60 percent from May-August 2007 sales of 6 million pounds. The sales volume growth in 2008 was accompanied by modest price increases for coho, sockeye and chum. Sockeye is the most significant among these, accounting for half of frozen fillet sales volume and 65 percent of frozen fillet value in 2007.
May-August is typically the slow period for frozen fillet sales, averaging 27 percent of calendar-year sales volume in the last five years. Still, sales volume for calendar year 2008 is already over 19 million pounds through August. If September-December frozen fillet sales are consistent with 2007, total frozen fillet sales for the year will exceed 35 million pounds, more than double the 2006 volume.
Fresh salmon fillets remain a relatively low-volume product form, and despite impressive percentage growth in the average wholesale price of fresh sockeye and coho fillets, there is little change in total value for the category. The decrease in fresh fillet sales from 3.7 million pounds in May-August 2007 to 1.9 million pounds in 2008 mirrors the decline in fresh H&G sales volume and likely reflects market forces affecting the broader fresh salmon category.
Roe
The May-August period of 2008 is remarkable for major increases in salmon roe prices. Average wholesale value of sockeye roe increased 80 percent, from $3.48 per pound during May-August 2007 to $6.27 for the same period in 2008. Pink roe doubled in value, from $4.55 to $9.14, and chum roe value was up 95 percent, from $6.89 per pound in 2007 to $13.45 in 2008.
May-August sales volume of salmon roe was down from 12.9 million pounds in 2007 to 7.5 million in 2008. But high prices offset the light volume and total wholesale value of salmon roe increased in 2008, from $61 million to $70 million.
Production of salmon roe from the 2008 season is not yet known, but based on previous years��� production and sales patterns, it appears that the pace of sales in 2008 is slow. Normally about half (5-year average 53 percent) of roe sales volume occurs during the May-Aug period. However, sales volume for May-August 2008 is unusually light at just 7.5 million pounds, 40 percent below the five-year average volume of 12.3 million pounds for the period. Salmon roe production from a similar harvest-volume year (2006) suggests that production from the 2008 harvest will be in the 20-22 million pound range. With calendar-year sales at slightly over 8 million pounds through August, it appears that over 60 percent of 2008-season roe production remained unsold at the beginning of September
