2008 Salmon Forecast

 

Alaska Department of Fish and Game released its 2008 run forecasts and salmon harvest projections in February. As always, the projection generates a good deal of interest from industry stakeholders. While accuracy varies from year to year, the ADF&G projection is normally within 10-20 percent of the actual harvest and provides an important “ballpark” figure for market supply of Alaska wild salmon.

 

Alaska Department of Fish and Game has projected the 2008 Alaska salmon harvest at 137 million fish. If the projection is accurate, the 2008 harvest will rank number 17 among historical Alaska salmon harvests, with reliable records dating from 1900 forward.

 

The 2008 projection is a 35 percent decrease from the near-record salmon harvest of 212 million in 2007. Virtually all the difference between 2007 and the 2008 projection is in pink salmon. The anticipated pink harvest is down from 144 million in 2007 to projection of 66 million in 2008. For the remainder of Alaska salmon species, total harvest was 68 million fish in 2007 and is projected at 71 million in 2008.

 

 

 

Chinook

The 2008 projection calls for a statewide Chinook harvest of 672,000 fish, but actual Chinook harvest in 2008 will likely be closer to 500,000 fish. Projection methodology for Chinook relies heavily on recent average harvests, which have been strong for several years. Current projection methodology does not incorporate Chinook harvest quotas based on terms of the Pacific Salmon Treaty.

 

Chinook harvest in the primary production area, Southeast Alaska, is projected at 390,000 but actual harvest is unlikely to exceed 240,000 fish, based on treaty limitations. For 2008, allocation of treaty Chinook to SE commercial fleets is approximately 170,000 fish. While hatchery-produced Chinook will bridge some of the gap, the region total is unlikely to exceed 240,000 fish.

 

Elsewhere in the state, strong market demand and price will likely boost fishing effort for Chinook. Ex-vessel prices remained near the 30-year high point in 2007 and the market outlook for 2008 is strong. Harvest projection for Bristol Bay Chinook is 98,000 and projection for the Arctic, Yukon and Kuskokwim (AYK) region is 82,000.

 

Sockeye

The 2008 Alaska sockeye harvest projection is 47 million fish. If the projection is accurate, 2008 will be the fifth consecutive year of Alaska sockeye harvest above 40 million fish. This is significant with respect to supply, as the 50-year average Alaska sockeye harvest is only 28 million. Sockeye projections in the last 7 years have been fairly accurate, ranging between -11 and +17 percent compared to actual harvest.

 

Bristol Bay is expected to be a strong performer again, with a harvest projection of 31 million sockeye, 66 percent of the statewide sockeye projection total. Sockeye fisheries elsewhere in the state (“local” sockeye) are expected to produce 16 million fish, down slightly from 17 million in 2007.

 

There is a good chance the 2008 sockeye harvest will exceed 50 million as Bristol Bay run projections have been consistently low in the last three years, by an average of nine million fish per year.

 

Coho

The projection methodology for coho relies primarily on recent five-year average harvests. Accordingly, the harvest projection of 4.4 million coho for the 2008 season reveals little about the potential of the coho return to produce a harvest substantially above or below projection.

 

Statewide coho abundance may be declining, at least for the short term. The 2007 catch of 3.6 million marked a third consecutive year of harvest decline from the 10-year high of 5.3 million in 2004. This occurs at a time of increasing permit-holder participation and strong prices for coho, so lack of fishing effort is not considered a factor in the reduced harvest.

 

Still, such fluctuation is within the bounds of normal abundance patterns. The Alaska coho harvest is volatile. The recent 10-year average harvest is 4.5 million but has been as high as 9.5 million, in 1994.

 

Pink Salmon

The 2008 harvest projection for pink salmon is 66 million, less than half the 2007 harvest of 144 million. Despite the dramatic decline from the previous season, the 2008 pink salmon harvest projection represents a normal abundance pattern for the species.

 

Variation of the Alaska pink harvest follows a predictable pattern based on the two-year life cycle of the fish. Abundance of parent-year fish is directly related to current-year abundance. Pink salmon harvest in the last three even-numbered years (2002, 2004 and 2006) averages 87 million fish, compared to harvest in the last three odd-numbered years (2003, 2005 and 2007) averaging 143 million pinks.

 

The odd-even pink salmon abundance pattern is especially distinct in recent years, but is a long-term pattern. In the last 20 years, even-year pink harvest averaged 85 million while odd-year harvest averaged 123 million.

 

Chum

The 2008 chum salmon projection is 18.7 million fish, slightly above the 10-year average of 18.1 million. The primary production areas are Southeast Alaska (projection 10.2 million) and Prince William Sound (4.7 million).

 

There is some concern over accuracy of the 2008 chum projection. Southeast Alaska biologists predicted a record harvest of 15.7 million for the region in 2007, but actual SE harvest was only 9.4 million.

 

Projected Salmon Roe Supply

The primary sources of salmon roe from the Alaska harvest are pink, chum and sockeye, in that order. Anticipated 2008 salmon roe production is 19-20 million pounds, down from the recent four-year average of 24 million pounds.

 

Pink salmon typically provides slightly over half the roe production (averaged for the odd-even cycle) but with the slim pink projection for 2008, pink roe production is expected to be only half of the 2007 volume.

 

Chum is the second-largest source of roe with about one-third of recent average production. It is the highest-valued roe and most often used to make ikura or other single-egg roe products. Chum roe production will likely be in the 6.5 – 7 million pound range with the 2008 harvest projection at 18 million.

 

Sockeye makes up the final major piece of roe supply and will likely produce about 6 million pounds of roe considering the strong harvest projection. Roe recovery is lower for sockeye, but this does not reflect an intrinsic problem with the fish or quality of the roe. Rather, it reflects the high percentage of sockeye that are caught in Bristol Bay and not chilled at the point of harvest. Two-thirds of the 2008 statewide sockeye projection is Bristol Bay, but only about one-third of Bristol Bay sockeye are chilled at the point of harvest and roe recovery declines accordingly.