Ex-vessel value of Alaska Chinook salmon is expected to rise this season, due to a substantial decrease in the market supply of wild Chinook. Alaska harvest is expected to be relatively high (projected at 780,000 fish) but management actions in the West-coast salmon fishery (Washington, Oregon, California) are expected to reduce the total North America harvest from the four-year average of nearly 2 million fish to about 1.4 million.
The Pacific Fishery Management Council manages ocean fisheries for Chinook off the West-coast states (Washington, Oregon, California). The council has recommended major harvest reductions to protect the troubled Klamath river stock. Although most Chinook stocks along the coast are healthy, the Klamath stock mixes freely with other stocks along several hundred miles of coastline and harvest of all Chinook is being restricted to protect the Klamath fish.
The Chinook harvest off Washington, Oregon and California has averaged slightly over one million fish through the last four years, but this year will likely be around 400,000 fish. This amounts to a 30 percent decrease in the total wild Chinook harvest, at a time when demand and ex-vessel price for the fish are at their highest point in several years.
As with any significant change to supply, time will tell if the decreased wild Chinook supply translates to higher prices or to increased substitution of other products. However, it seems that with ample supply of substitutes such as farmed salmon readily available and with ex-vessel prices for niche-market wild Chinook at peak levels, users are buying wild king salmon for reasons other than price. To the extent that Chinook from the higher-volume Alaska fisheries (Summer troll, Bristol Bay, Cook Inlet, etc.) can meet marketplace expectations of quality, delivery and shelf life, it seems logical that value of Chinooks from those fisheries would increase substantially.
