Pack estimates in this issue of the bulletin are preliminary, as statewide harvest figures are not yet finalized and average fish size not yet available. These pack estimates (and resulting inventory figures) will be corrected in later bulletins as more specific data becomes available.
There is some uncertainty with the canned pink production estimate. Product-form composition of the pack has been shifting from canned to frozen, due in part to poor canned prices. But canned pink market conditions have recently improved, concurrent with a substantial increase in demand for frozen pinks. These factors, combined with a record harvest in 2005, make it difficult to judge the rate of product-form shift. For this estimate, we assume 60 percent of the total pink salmon pack is in canned products, a slight decrease from 2004.
Carryover figures entering the 2005 sales season are considered final, as they are calculated using finalized ASPR data for previous years��� production and wholesale volume.
Canned Pink
The 2005 canned pink salmon pack estimate is 3.9 million 48-tall case equivalent, substantially above the five-year production average of 2.9 million cases. Carryover is 556,000 48-tall case equivalent. Estimated September canned pink inventory is 4.4 million 48-tall case equivalent, 13 percent higher than the five-year average of 3.9 million cases.
Canned pink carryover has been declining steadily from the peak of almost 1.3 million cases in 2002. Carryover entering the 2005 sales season is 556,000 cases, the lowest since 1999. In each of the last three sales seasons, sales volume has exceeded production, by an average of 240,000 cases. However, the trend of declining carryover is probably at an end. Five-year average sales volume of canned pink is slightly over 3 million cases, and production from the 2005 season is estimated at 3.9 million cases.
Canned Sockeye
The 2005 canned sockeye pack estimate is 1.23 million 48-tall case equivalent, up from the five-year production average of 1.08 million cases. Carryover of canned sockeye is fairly low, 84,000 48-tall equivalent. September 2005 canned sockeye inventory is estimated at 1.3 million 48-tall equivalent, only slightly higher than the 5-year average.
Sales volume for canned sockeye averages more than 1.1 million 48-tall equivalent during the last five sales seasons, so inventory of 1.3 million is not expected to result in a substantial carryover.
BC Canada Canned Pack
According to Canadian government statistics, the 2005 BC Canada canned salmon pack is not a major supply factor. Canned sockeye production through early September was 100,000 48-tall case equivalent, down from the three-year average of 168,000. Eighty-eight percent of BC���s 2005 canned sockeye production was from imported (Alaska) sockeye. BC canned pink production was 372,000 48-tall case equivalent, up from the three-year average of 289,000 but still less than 10 percent of Alaska���s canned pink production. Thirty-eight percent of BC canned pink production was from imported (Alaska) pinks.
Canned Salmon Terminolgy
Sales Season���Canned inventory and sales figures refer to the ���sales season,��� which starts September 1 of the harvest year and ends August 31 the following year. This matches reporting periods for the ASPR and represents market conditions associated with that season���s production. The 2005 sales season started September 2005 and will end August 2006.
Carryover Inventory���Since canned salmon has a long shelf life (several years, when stored correctly) unsold inventory is ���carried over��� to the next sales season. SMIS keeps a running tally of carryover, which can comprise as much as one-third of total canned salmon inventory.
For canned sockeye carryover, two of the last five years appear as negative numbers. If carryover is at or near zero when new production begins in July, sales of new production occur before the beginning of the new sales season in September. This gives the appearance of sales exceeding supply, as current-year production does not factor into carryover.
